A brief analysis of the most popular weak dollar m

A brief analysis of the weak dollar may be a blessing in disguise for the paper industry.

the weak dollar may be a blessing in disguise for the paper industry, where most of the cost is imported wood pulp. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to the performance of the paper industry. In addition, the elimination of backward production capacity is strengthened, and the overall performance of the paper industry will continue to grow. Among them, listed enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp, such as Chenming paper, Taiyang paper and Yueyang forest paper, benefited more significantly

data showed that paper prices remained basically stable last week (July), down 7.77%; The RMB remains stable or has a certain appreciation against the currencies of major plasma producing countries. The price of major imported wood pulp brands (RMB) fell by 0.51%, with a month on month decrease of 2.83%, and a cumulative decrease of 7.29% in 2011; NBSK in Europe rose to a certain extent, and the pulp price was stable

the RMB appreciation rate reached a new high, especially the continuous debt problems in the United States, and there is still much room for RMB appreciation in the future. Since wood pulp accounts for about 60% of the cost of papermaking enterprises, while imported wood pulp accounts for 70%, which will be very beneficial to the papermaking industry, which mainly relies on US dollars and foreign exchange to purchase raw materials

on July 26, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4470, setting a new high since the exchange rate reform. On the previous trading day, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4503. By the end of June, international wood pulp (Northern bleached cork kraft pulp) had reached US $1023/ton, a record high over 2008, up 1.30% from May; Up 4.85% year on year

Moody's, the international rating agency, announced a downgrade of Greece's sovereign rating, which was a drag on European currencies. The International Monetary Fund said that if the United States failed to reach an agreement on its fiscal plan, interest rates could rise or its rating could be lowered. Against this background, the US dollar in the international exchange market continued to adjust weakly, while the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar resumed its upward trend and reached a new high

due to China's low forest coverage, the utilization rate of waste paper is not high, but Longmei and pingkuang can't wait, so China has become the world's largest pulp importer, and the paper industry has also become China's third largest foreign exchange industry

according to the analysis of insiders, the appreciation of RMB mainly affects the performance of the paper industry in three aspects: first, the import proportion of wood pulp and waste paper in domestic paper raw materials is large, and the purchasing power increases after the appreciation of RMB, which is conducive to reducing the cost of imported raw materials; Second, most large paper machines in China rely on imports, and the purchasing power of RMB is enhanced to reduce the cost of imported equipment; Third, exchange gains. Because imported paper machines and raw materials need foreign currencies, listed companies have foreign currency liabilities. With the appreciation of the RMB, it will bring considerable exchange gains to some enterprises

in addition, according to the market's generally expected RMB appreciation of 5% in 2011, the cost of the paper industry will be saved by 4.69 billion yuan statically, while the total profit of the paper industry in 2010 was only 52.06 billion yuan, with a considerable increase. The calculation shows that if the RMB appreciates by 1%, the net profit of the industry will increase by 3.25% when the oxide skin is too much; If the appreciation is 3%, the net profit of the industry will increase by 9.57%

the price of paper products was stable in July, but the price of imported wood pulp fell due to insufficient demand in Europe and the United States, which will play a more positive role in improving the performance of the paper industry. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology will increase efforts to reduce backward production capacity, and the overall performance of the paper industry will continue to improve gradually

it is understood that in the first ten days of July, the price of paper products was basically stable and slightly weak, but the price of wood pulp continued to decline. Due to the contraction of downstream demand, the main varieties of domestic wood pulp market continued the downward trend since the second quarter. The price of broad-leaved pulp fell slightly. Needle pulp generally fell by 4% 5%。

the Ministry of industry and information technology (hereinafter referred to as the Ministry of industry and information technology) announced on July 11 the list of 18 enterprises with backward production capacity, backward production lines (equipment) and production capacity eliminated in the national industrial industry in 2011, of which 8.196 million tons were eliminated in the paper industry, involving 599 enterprises. The final results released by the Ministry of industry and information technology increased by 750000 tons, an increase of 10%

among them, listed enterprises with higher self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp, such as Chenming Paper (000488), Taiyang paper (002078) and Yueyang forest paper (600963), benefited more significantly

Chenming paper is the largest paper-making enterprise in China, and its products are also very complete. Due to its outstanding scale and technical advantages, the company only needs an investment of 60-70 million yuan to reach the paper production capacity of 10000 tons, while the domestic paper industry generally needs an investment of about 100million yuan. The 100000 ton kraft paper and 120000 ton art paper projects of Fuyu Chenming reached full production in 2009, which will have a positive impact on the company's continued leadership in the industry. The company also successfully issued H-shares on June 18, 2008, becoming a pioneer in the internationalization path in the industry, and obtained about HK $3.2 billion for expansion, which is the guarantee for the future performance growth of the company

the company has invested nearly 1billion to successfully implement the 600000 ton high-end Coated white kraft linerboard project of Meilun. The proportion of high-end paper products will be greatly increased, which will consolidate the company's strength in the high-end paper market, thereby enhancing the company's comprehensive competitiveness. In order to maintain the technical advantages of the industry, the company has been purchasing advanced equipment for many years. The equipment purchased are from Andritz group, Metso company and Voith company, the world's most high-end manufacturers in the paper industry. After completion, the production capacity of 800000 tons of high-end Coated paper, 700000 tons of wood pulp and 450000 tons of high-end cultural paper will be formed, which is conducive to the company's cost control and improving product grades, so as to enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness

the total paper/pulp capacity of sun paper will reach 3million tons. The company is also building a forest pulp and paper base in Laos and a wood pulp Wharf in Vietnam. It is the first paper-making enterprise in China to implement the internationalization strategy of raw materials

the forestry pulp paper integration project implemented by the company in Laos is mainly to improve the self-sufficiency rate of the company's raw pulp. The registered capital of the Lao new company is 19,7. There are problems in the industry, such as the slow conversion of the overall old and new kinetic energy, the arduous task of strict management and control of new production capacity, the low profit margin of the industry, the difficulty of financing and the aggravation of international trade frictions. All contributions are raised by the company itself. The price of wood pulp will continue to rise as Russia raises export tariffs on wood and other products, as well as the global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The development of rich forestry resources in Laos is conducive to reducing the company's costs and expanding the company's future sales market in Southeast Asia

Yueyang forest paper is a leading enterprise in the paper industry integrating Hunan forest paper industry, with an annual production capacity of 1million tons of paper products. The 200000 Mu fast-growing forest planted on a large scale in early 2003 reached the normal cutting volume in 2009. The company's leading products, offset paper and light coated paper, belong to the category of cultural paper, and are one of the sectors that benefit most from energy conservation and emission reduction

it is understood that the latest products of the company are super calendered paper, environmental friendly copy paper and high-end electrostatic copy paper, which are of high quality among cultural papers, have a certain protective effect on vision, and are in line with the future development trend. The bargaining power of new products is strong, and the gross profit rate is expected to reach more than 25%

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